Poland's political marathon: navigating the road to the 2024 EU elections

While 2024 might be globally known as the election super year, Poland finds itself amidst an election marathon in its own right. It started with the groundbreaking parliamentary elections on October 15th 2023, which, after 8 years of the controversial and turbulent Law and Justice rule, has brought back a coalition led by former prime minister and ex-European Council President Donald Tusk. Next came the local elections held in April, which proved that despite the previous success, the country remains politically divided, with rural areas predominantly voting PiS and big cities backing Tusk's Civic Platform. While these results didn't come as a surprise, one was waiting just around the corner.

As preparations for the EU election campaign started to gain momentum and candidates were announced, many rubbed their eyes in disbelief, seeing among them not one but three sitting ministers and several other high-ranking politicians of the current government. This, of course, didn't go unnoticed by the media, political opponents and experts, who all voiced their speculations on the reasons behind the exodus. It is no secret that a MEP mandate is a prestigious one, and with a monthly salary of ca. 8000 EUR (figures as of 01/07/2023), various allowances and a pension can be tempting even to a state minister, who in Poland would earn somewhere between 4000 and 5000 EUR.

At the same time, the mandate is seen as a political parachute or comfortable retirement for those who, for various reasons, would otherwise not have found a position in the governmental structures. So, what are the European elections for politicians and voters in Poland exactly? Are they already in the starting blocks, or perhaps just warming up before another big race?

The EU elections: a championship with few spectators

Optimists like to believe that the historic turnout of the fall elections (74,38%), the highest since 1989, points to a new democratic awakening of the country, while according to the EP Spring 2024 Eurobarometer, a baffling 70% of the 1020 Polish interviewees declared, that were the elections to take place the following week, they would likely go vote. While this scenario would be highly desirable, it doesn't seem very likely. Since the Polish accession in 2004, interest in the European campaign and the elections has systematically proven low, with a turnout of 45.47%, 43.97%, 42.62% and 50.66% in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019, respectively. Even though the local elections have traditionally received slightly more attention, with an average turnout of 48.9% in the first and 40.95% in the second round, the ones in April 2024 have already shown a fall in participation compared to 2018 and the parliamentary elections 2023, with 51,99% in the first and 44,06% in the second round.

The reason behind this development might be that the recent parliamentary elections were portrayed as the most crucial event in the country's modern history, with actors from both sides of the political spectrum putting everything into the campaign and NGOs and social actors rooting to raise the turnout. Secondly, as stated by dr Maciej Sychowiec from the SWPS University in Warsaw in an interview on recent Polish voting behaviour – this intense period left many tired of politics and waiting out the local elections, keeping in mind that there are two more critical votes ahead of them.

The relatively high (declared) interest in the European elections is probably a result of a residual heightened sense of civic responsibility combined with a sense of urgency driven by the so-called global policrisis. In particular, the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Ukraine and the future of European security and defence have penetrated the political debate on all levels. This overlaps an anticipated strong performance of right-wing political movements in the EU parliament, which motivates a more left-leaning electorate concerned about the future of the EU and positive relations between Warsaw and Brussels.

Scoring Points: How Political Parties' Programs Match Voter Priorities

But do politicians campaign with the topics that are perceived as necessary? The Eurobarometer as mentioned earlier highlighted those that, according to potential voters, should be discussed as a matter of priority during the campaign for the European Parliament elections. The results showed that amongst the Polish population, the EU's defence and security policy and public health ranked highest – 37% and 36%, respectively, followed by support for the economy and the creation of new jobs (28%) and agricultural policy (22%). Be it due to an exhaustion of the topic during the last eight years, during which a battle against the restriction of women's and sexual minorities' rights consumed much of the public eye, the topic identified as the least important to Polish voters in the European Elections turned out to be gender equality, inclusion and diversity (10%).

On a side note: This result indicates not only the risk those groups are still exposed to – especially in times of crisis, as famously pointed out by Simone de Beauvoir - but also women's general situation in Polish politics. For one, despite playing a crucial role in the Civic Coalition's success and being one of its key target audiences, the regrettable pace at which the reform of the abortion law is advancing showcases how easily promises made during a campaign are forgotten or put up for debate. Secondly, while the 2024 elections have resulted in a record number of female candidates (43,8%) and the largest percentage of women voted into Poland's Sejm (29,3%), only 24,9% of candidate lists in the 2023 elections were led by women. In the upcoming EP elections, 32.3% (21 out of 65) of the top spots on electoral lists were taken by women, showing a slight improvement.

Quite surprisingly, the same Eurobarometer survey showed that migration and asylum scored only 16% despite dominating media and political debates. It is also one of the main themes of the Law and Justice campaign. By framing the migration pact as a threat to national security, the EU as an institution robbing Poland of its sovereignty, and calling out the current government for allegedly working against Polish national interests, PiS hopes to mobilise enough supporters to introduce around 20 MEPs from 13 constituencies into the EP. This would allow the party to announce its tenth electoral victory in a row—at least in terms of securing the largest share of the vote among Polish parties.

In particular, the case against the Civic Coalition might come across as curious, as the migration policy of Tusk's cabinet is continuing the previous government's narrative, perhaps hoping to claim parts of the opponent's conservative electorate. This can be seen, among other things, at the Polish-Belarusian border, where illegal pushbacks continue to occur and the Ministry of Internal Affairs is currently initiating the construction of a second dam line. This, according to the statements of Vice Minister Czesław Mroczek (PO), is necessary for the sake of state security, as large groups of illegal migrants formed and supported by the Belarusian services are trying to force down the physical barrier with increased frequency.

The European Green Deal, another pillar of the PiS European campaign, is being presented as imposing significant financial burdens on so-called "ordinary citizens," playing well into the economic concerns of many voters, especially in rural areas. These narratives are disseminated through both social and traditional media, aiming to polarise the electorate and emphasise the campaign's role as a critical defence of Polish values against external influences. This strategy solidifies PiS' position as the alleged defender of national sovereignty and economic stability, laying the groundwork for the presidential campaign next year. The opposition will try to maintain its grip on the government currently secured through President Andrzej Duda, who, after his second consecutive term, will not be able to run again.

With many famous and seasoned politicians on its lists, the Civic Coalition (KO) hopes to energise its core electorate, which has slightly dwindled since last October's elections. In addition to emphasizing national and European security, Prime Minister Tusk's political camp doesn't shy away from directly criticizing its main opponents. Controversy arose when it released a dramatic spot accusing the Law and Justice party of facilitating Russian influence on Poland. This was unfortunately timed, coinciding with the attack on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, amid global calls to avoid political aggression and polarisation. Interestingly enough, other than that, there is little campaigning coming from the ruling party. According to the Stefan Batory Foundation, the campaigns of both PiS and PO, which currently only lie about 2% apart in polls, have been little dynamic and are characterised by ads with limited reach and small budgets. Perhaps the Civic Coalition relies on the fact that most Poles, especially their core electorate, are pro-European and don't need much convincing. Possibly it attempts to exhibit an atmosphere of confidence and control, highlighting that the proverbial dice were cast last fall and that the political course was set for the next four years.

This year's European elections are also particularly important to the Polish Greens, who are part of the ruling coalition, as for the first time since their formation in 2003, a party member is running for MEP. Joanna Kamińska is taking the fourth spot on the Civic Coalition (KO) list, where she stands out as a breath of fresh air amidst moderate-conservative 'celebrities' from the Civic Platform (PO). With extensive experience as an advisor on security and defence in the European Parliament since 2013, she brings a wealth of knowledge and a progressive perspective to her campaign.

Kamińska is also a staunch advocate for progressive policies, including legal and safe access to abortion, as evidenced by her support for the European "We'll Handle It Ourselves" initiative as well as LGBTQ+ rights. She aims to be a strong voice for climate action and sustainable transport, pushing for developing high-speed rail and integrating national railway systems to reduce travel times and emissions. Additionally, she supports robust aid for Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression and advocates for the integration of the EU defence industry. Her campaign is driven by a commitment to significant legislative changes in these areas. If successful, Kamińska would join the Greens-EFA, unlike the other KO candidates on the list, making for the first Green MEP from Poland in this faction.

Trzecia Droga aims to solidify its position as the third major political force in Poland behind PiS and KO with the slogan "Trzecia Droga – bądź sobą w Europie" (Third Way – Be Yourself in Europe). Led by Szymon Hołownia of Polska 2050 and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz of the Polish People's Party (PSL), the parties have renewed their alliance for the European Parliament elections despite differing affiliations (European People's Party for PSL and Renew Europe for Polska 2050), instead highlighting the unique strengths thereof.

Their key objectives include securing funds for Polish entrepreneurship, agriculture, local governments, childcare facilities, preschools, hospitals, and national security while emphasizing Poland's active role in the EU. The campaign focuses on internal unity and external security, with strategic positioning of MEP candidates to achieve strong results. Trzecia Droga's energy policy emphasises the development of decentralised green energy to enhance security and sustainability. They highlight the vulnerability of single power plants, as seen in Ukraine, and advocate for a transformation that benefits people rather than opposes them.

Despite achieving moderate success in the recent local elections (6.3%) and anticipating a similarly humble result in the EU elections (6.6%), the left claims to have a strong hand in the EU elections as a credible and undeniably euro-enthusiastic party. Katarzyna Kotula, Minister for Equality in the Prime Minister's Office and the new campaign head explained that their campaign will target voters aged 19 to 29. This demographic, largely apathetic in local elections, might be more inclined to participate in the EU elections. Positioning themselves as "trendsetters" among parties, the left plans to focus their campaign on combating right-wing fundamentalism and advocating for the rights of various groups—consumers, retirees, interns, and women—a fairly eclectic mix.

They also argue for a fair energy transition based on green and nuclear power. Other proposals include expanding European rail networks and establishing a European Housing Fund. Under the slogan "Europe for You," the party leaders aim to create a Europe that has a tangible impact on people's lives, making positive changes. However, it remains to be seen if their message will resonate, as according to the aforementioned Eurobarometer study, 66% of Poles feel that their standard of living has not improved due to the EU, and 22% believe it has worsened. The left also advocates for ambitious reforms of EU institutions, including granting the European Parliament legislative initiative and reducing the required signatures for a citizen initiative from 1 million to 500 thousand.

Konfederacja, a right-wing populist party, has launched its campaign for the European Parliament with the slogan "#ChcemyŻyćNormalnie" (We Want to Live Normally). The party's message is built on a series of firm NOs: NO to EU climate policy, NO to the euro, NO to the EU Pact on Migration, and NO to tightening cooperation with the EU. The party positions the EU elections as a choice between living under what they term "normal" conditions or "conforming to the demands of EU bureaucrats". This stark dichotomy aims to attract voters disillusioned with the EU's influence over national policies. Konfederacja's campaign emphasises rejecting EU-imposed climate policies, which they argue are detrimental to the Polish economy. They also stand firmly against adopting the euro, maintaining that it would allegedly undermine Poland's economic independence.

The party's opposition to the EU Pact on Migration is rooted in a broader national security and cultural preservation narrative. By promoting so-called traditional values, Konfederacja seeks to resonate with voters who feel alienated by what they perceive as the EU's liberal agenda. The party has seen particular success among young male voters, drawn to its libertarian economic rhetoric and firm stance on social issues, including its unapologetically anti-LGBTQ and anti-women's rights positions.

Bottom line

The truth may align with the perspective of Professor Rafał Chwedoruk from the Faculty of Political and International Studies at Warsaw University, who asserts that these elections are "most meaningful for those who can achieve the least." – referring to the Third Way, the Left and Konfederacja, but potentially also smaller coalition partners like the Greens, who in the current political set-up have moderate to little influence on national politics and could play out their ambitions on the European level. For PiS and the Civic Coalition, the current events hold secondary importance.

While the upcoming EU elections are important, they serve primarily as a demonstration of power and a strategic prelude to the actual campaign that will culminate in the presidential elections 2025. For Poland's major political players, this period is a chance to consolidate their bases, showcase their influence, and set the stage for the next major political battle. The outcomes of these elections will be less about immediate legislative impacts and more about positioning and momentum, with each party striving to prove its dominance and readiness to tackle the national stage.

The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.